Deadly Meteors Mutate Civilians is one of the less played crisis, but with recent releases I think it will be being played more and more – but that’s for another time. Today I want to look at the maths behind taking control of the origin bombs.
The mechanics of the crisis require to roll dice equal to your energy defense and get more criticals, wild and hits than opposing characters contesting the secure objective.
The maths on this looks like this:
A big take away here is obviously more dice are better, but the marginal gain from going from 2 energy def to 3 energy def is much bigger than from 3 to 4. A really common situation is trying to wrest control of a meteor away from one opponent. 2 dice gives you a 25% chance; 3 dice increases that by 25% to 50%; 4 dice increases that by 18.8% to 68.8%. The bigger jump there is moving away from 2 energy defense characters like Crossbones, Groot or Venom, in favour of three of four energy defense characters.
It’s worth reinforcing that a 3 defense character still has an even chance to flip a meteor with in enemy contesting; often that will be worth a shot.
4 dice also makes overcoming two opponents a lot more possible, if still only about equivalent to a 5+ on a d6.
Recently we’ve seen the reality gem, available on Corvus Glaive or Thanos. Both of those have a three energy defense, but the gem allows them to count one fail result as a critical, skewing their maths a bit on Meteors.
Either of them with the gem becomes close to a 4 dice character, with slightly better chances at hitting one success needed to flip an empty meteor, but lower at getting 2 and 3 successes than 4 dice.
Odds of damage
If your interact roll has at least one fail you take a damage from interacting. The odds on that happening are:
Those big dice charcaters are more likely to take damage from their interactions, but the reality gem does a great job of shielding Thanos and Corvus from damage by allowing you to ignore one of the fail results that would cause damage. This shows another reason that Asgard might fare even better in this crisis – not only do they have the power required to interact with both an extract and a meteor in round one, but their leadership can easily undo the damage they might take from the origin bombs.