I am burdened with glorious purpose

After all the Asgardian spoilers, my head has been swimming with all the extra dice math that one character has added to the game: Loki

There are two abilities that need some number crunching. The first is his double wild on his illusions attack.

With 6 dice, the chance of getting two of more wilds is about 1 in 5, but if you can get him a reroll (Baron Zemo or Wakanda can do it easily) then it moves to closer to 1 in 4. Add in a team tactics card for a coupon of extra dice and it gets close to 1 in 3.

Next up is his ability to count blanks as successes on either attack or defense.

On defense, it shifts his maths to being better than 5 dice. Bear in mind he can do this for 1 cost on Avengers! Let’s see what that does to his chances of surviving:

A decent strength hit (7), has a 16% chance to straight daze him and a 12% chance to do no damage. Add in the blanks and the chance to daze halves to 8% and the chance for no damage doubles to 24%.

If he’s taken a bit of damage already it goes from a pretty sure thing to daze him (75%) to a coin-flip.

That’s a big swing. But not as big as in offence:

For two power, his strike becomes somewhere better than 7 but not as good as 8 dice. By comparison, Crossbones pays 4 to get to 8. That seems pretty efficient. But if you can get to 5 power, you can use Illusions with I am a GOD!, for better than 9 dice worth of punch at range 4. Seems pretty okay.

But the real headache comes on his flipped side.

Stopping crits from generating additional dice sounds like a really powerful ability. Once you dig in to the maths, it does have an effect, but it might not be as big as you’d think. Let’s look at defense first:

And some common attack values:

It doesn’t have a big effect on lower numbers of successes – getting two blocks only shifts a small amount. What it does do, is limit the spike potential – 11% less likely to get 5+ hits on 6 dice is a noticeable swing, and it will only get bigger with larger dice pools.

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