Adding or removing two dice can be really important, but if you only get to play them once, when should it be?
I’ve been doing some number crunching and getting neck deep in the dice maths of the game. It’s beginning to bear fruit and I hope to have more news on getting an online tool running in the near future, but I have enough numbers to start drawing some conclusions.
For the purposes of this article I’m going to make some assumptions that might not be true.
First, that the best use is to either cause or prevent a daze or KO on a character. Denying or maintaining control of an objective is important, as is loss of activation. Both are key ideas in the game and being dazed/KOed affects them a lot.
Next that is that there aren’t any rerolls involved. That’s a big one as there are loads of reroll effects, but the maths of rerolls really complicated the calculations. I’m working on including them but it’s really really not simple. I’ve also limited to the normal range of attacks: between 4 and 8 damage. This is just a preliminary assessment to give an idea of the relative power level of the cards and ideas of when is best to play them.
Finally, that you always have the other friendly character in range to trigger them whenever you want. Clearly this will depend on board state and positioning, but this should give you a best case scenario.
This chart shows the odds of getting at least a particular number of damage on a character with 2 defense.
That shows that biggest change in odds for adding or removing 2 dice of power is when they have 3 health remaining. That can change a 6 dice attack with a 50% chance to daze to a 4 dice with only 22%. Thats a big swing. For higher power attacks (8+) it might be better to use when a character has 4 health remaining.
Again, on a 3 defense character, 3 health left seems to be a sweet spot for swinging the odds. Against weak attacks 2 health might be best and again stronger attacks 4 health left.
With 4 defense, you get a lot less swing in odds if they are on 4 health, so 2 or 3 health again ranging from weaker attacks vs 2 to stronger attacks vs 3 health give the best change in odds.
Having said all that, you might think that using them to really make sure you do that one damage you need to daze may be a more optimal use of these valuable resources. Shifting from ~70% chance to ~85% chance (or vice-versa) might be the best call if the game is on the line.