A real Wild ride

A quick one: what is the chance of rolling a wild? One in 8? Not quite. And what about on 5 dice?

Sometimes rolling a wild can be the difference between winning and losing a game. Getting a push that wins you and objective. A stagger than means your extract holder is likely to avoid being dazed. A ricochet to KO a character on its last legs. You get the idea.

Never tell me the odds

Well, stop reading then. One face out of 8 is a wild, but rolling a crit adds another dice, so your chance of rolling wild on one dice is not 1/8 (12.5%) but 9/64 (14%). That might not sound a big difference, but it does add up over a pool of dice.

Your chances of rolling at least one wild on a particular pool of dice are:

There is no specific tipping point, but it’s unsurprising that the while the chance increases with dice pool the marginal increase is diminishing. This of course excludes rerolls. If you are wild fishing, just add the number of rerolls you have to your dice pool, then modify down a bit for the chance of rolling a failure on your first roll. I’m working on the actual maths of that, but it is significantly non-trivial to calculate.


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